Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts

A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesosca...

Mô tả đầy đủ

Đã lưu trong:
Chi tiết thư mục
Tác giả chính: Mittermaier, M. P.
Ngôn ngữ:English
Năm xuất bản: Copernicus Publications 2018
Chủ đề:
Truy cập Trực tuyến:http://lrc.quangbinhuni.edu.vn:8181/dspace/handle/DHQB_123456789/3685
Tags: Thêm thẻ
Không có thẻ, Hãy là người đầu tiên gắn thẻ bản ghi này!
id oai:localhost:DHQB_123456789-3685
recordtype dspace
spelling oai:localhost:DHQB_123456789-36852018-10-22T08:43:36Z Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts Mittermaier, M. P. Technology Anthropology Environmental technology Recreation Sanitary engineering Geography A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesoscale version of the UK Met Office Unified Model for a two-day high-impact event and for a month were verified at the daily and six-hourly time scale using a spatially-based intensity-scale method and various traditional skill scores such as the Equitable Threat Score (ETS) and log-odds ratio. Radar-rainfall accumulations from the UK Nimrod radar-composite were used. <br><br> The results show that the inclusion of uncertainty has some effect, shifting the forecast errors and skill. The study also allowed for the comparison of results from the intensity-scale method and traditional skill scores. It showed that the two methods complement each other, one detailing the scale and rainfall accumulation thresholds where the errors occur, the other showing how skillful the forecast is. It was also found that for the six-hourly forecasts the error distributions remain similar with forecast lead time but skill decreases. This highlights the difference between forecast error and forecast skill, and that they are not necessarily the same. 2018-07-17T08:05:10Z 2018-07-17T08:05:10Z 2018 http://lrc.quangbinhuni.edu.vn:8181/dspace/handle/DHQB_123456789/3685 en Copernicus Publications
institution Trung tâm Học liệu Đại học Quảng Bình (Dspace)
collection Trung tâm Học liệu Đại học Quảng Bình (Dspace)
language English
topic Technology
Anthropology
Environmental technology
Recreation
Sanitary engineering
Geography
spellingShingle Technology
Anthropology
Environmental technology
Recreation
Sanitary engineering
Geography
Mittermaier, M. P.
Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts
description A simple measure of the uncertainty associated with using radar-derived rainfall estimates as "truth" has been introduced to the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) verification process to assess the effect on forecast skill and errors. Deterministic precipitation forecasts from the mesoscale version of the UK Met Office Unified Model for a two-day high-impact event and for a month were verified at the daily and six-hourly time scale using a spatially-based intensity-scale method and various traditional skill scores such as the Equitable Threat Score (ETS) and log-odds ratio. Radar-rainfall accumulations from the UK Nimrod radar-composite were used. <br><br> The results show that the inclusion of uncertainty has some effect, shifting the forecast errors and skill. The study also allowed for the comparison of results from the intensity-scale method and traditional skill scores. It showed that the two methods complement each other, one detailing the scale and rainfall accumulation thresholds where the errors occur, the other showing how skillful the forecast is. It was also found that for the six-hourly forecasts the error distributions remain similar with forecast lead time but skill decreases. This highlights the difference between forecast error and forecast skill, and that they are not necessarily the same.
author Mittermaier, M. P.
author_facet Mittermaier, M. P.
author_sort Mittermaier, M. P.
title Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts
title_short Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts
title_full Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts
title_fullStr Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts
title_full_unstemmed Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts
title_sort introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts
publisher Copernicus Publications
publishDate 2018
url http://lrc.quangbinhuni.edu.vn:8181/dspace/handle/DHQB_123456789/3685
_version_ 1717292436293681152
score 9,463379